China's New 5 Year Plan
☕ India’s Morning Briefing: Wed, December 24
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Welcome to the 190th edition of The India Brief
Deep Dive: The Dragon’s New Scales
Yesterday, Premier Li Qiang sat down to draft China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Boring? Only if you think a superpower rewriting its economic DNA is boring. This document, covering 2026-2030, is less of a budget and more of a survival manual for the next era of global conflict.
The Big Pivot: “New Quality Productive Forces” This clunky phrase (NQPF) is the star of the show. It’s Beijing’s code for swapping “dumb growth” (bridges, apartments, cheap toys) for “smart power” (AI, quantum computing, green energy, and biomanufacturing). The goal isn’t just to grow; it’s to upgrade.
Why It Matters: The Sanction-Proof Fortress The timing is critical. Facing tightening US export controls on chips and technology, China is being forced to build an internal fortress. The plan doubles down on “technological self-reliance”. By pouring state capital into “future industries” like hydrogen and aerospace, Beijing aims to create a supply chain that Western sanctions cannot strangle.
The Strategy: Growth vs. Security For decades, China prioritized GDP speed. Now, it is prioritizing GDP security. The 15th Plan accepts that growth might be slower, but it must be safer from geopolitical shocks. It’s a pivot from being the “World’s Factory” to becoming the “World’s Laboratory”—a shift that will redefine global trade and force nations to pick sides in the tech war.
The India Brief: Top Stories
I. POLITICS, LAW & POLICY
Karti Chidambaram: Visa Gate Charges
👨⚖️ The Court: Delhi court frames charges for criminal conspiracy against Karti.
🛂 The Allegation: Facilitating visas for 263 Chinese nationals for bribes in 2011.
📝 The Status: Charges framed under IPC and Prevention of Corruption Act.
The Wit: Nothing says “political nostalgia” like a corruption case from 2011 making headlines in 2025.
The Lens: Framing charges moves this from investigation to trial, tightening the legal noose. For the opposition, it is another battlefront in the narrative war on corruption, conveniently timed as political temperatures rise.
Allahabad HC: Preaching Not Crime
📖 The Verdict: Distributing Bibles or preaching does not violate anti-conversion law.
👮 The Scolding: Police pulled up for filing FIRs without identifiable victims.
🛡️ The Principle: Reaffirms constitutional protection for voluntary religious expression.
The Wit: The police confused “giving a book” with “forceful indoctrination”—a rare guest appearance by common sense.
The Signal: A significant judicial pushback against the misuse of the 2021 Act. The High Court draws a red line: voluntary religious activity is protected, preventing state machinery from criminalising faith-based interactions by default.
Bangladesh: Diplomatic Simmer
📞 The Summons: Dhaka summons Indian envoy over mission security concerns.
🔥 The Trigger: Protests in Delhi against attacks on minorities in Bangladesh.
🚩 The Context: Tensions spike following lynching of Hindu man in Mymensingh.
The Wit: Diplomatic relations are currently as fragile as a poppadom; summoning envoys is never good.
The Lens: The cycle of action-reaction is dangerous. Communal incidents in Bangladesh fuel outrage in India, which Dhaka frames as interference. Keeping streets calm is now a prerequisite for keeping diplomatic channels open.
BSP: The Zero Hour
🐘 The Crisis: BSP faces prospect of zero MPs as Rajya Sabha terms end.
📉 The Decline: Vote share plummeting; risk of losing ‘National Party’ status.
⏳ The Future: Mayawati’s party faces existential threat after 36 years.
The Wit: The elephant in the room is that the Elephant is no longer in the room.
The Lens: The consolidation of Dalit votes by other players has hollowed out the BSP. Without a strategic reinventing, the party risks becoming a historical footnote rather than a political force in India.
II. ECONOMY, TECH & INFRASTRUCTURE
The Dragon’s WTO Gambit
🇨🇳 The Move: China files WTO complaint against India’s solar/IT subsidies.
🏭 The Grievance: Claims local value addition requirements violate national treatment.
🇮🇳 The Defense: Measures boost domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependency.
The Wit: China complaining about “unfair subsidies” is rich—like a shark complaining about table manners.
The Lens: This is economic warfare. China is rattled by India’s PLI success in chipping away at global supply chains. Beijing hopes to legally dismantle the protectionist walls New Delhi is building.
Dalal Street: The Flatline
📉 Numbers: Sensex dips 43 pts to 85,525; Nifty flat at 26,177.
🛑 Laggards: IT stocks drag indices down on profit-taking.
🌍 Context: Investors cautious ahead of global cues; FII flows volatile.
The Wit: The market moved less than a teenager asked to clean their room—pure stagnation.
The Lens: Consolidation is the word. After a recent run-up, the market is catching its breath. The weakness in IT suggests skepticism about US tech spending, despite the AI hype cycle continuing.
ISRO: Bluebird To Take Flight
🚀 The Mission: Countdown begins for LVM3-M6 launch with US satellite.
🛰️ The Payload: 6,100 kg ‘Bluebird Block-2’; heaviest commercial LEO payload.
📱 The Goal: Providing high-speed cellular broadband directly to smartphones.
The Wit: ISRO is basically the Uber for heavy satellites now—reliable, affordable, and punctual.
The Signal: NewSpace India Ltd is aggressively capturing the commercial heavy-lift market. Launching a US commercial satellite cements ISRO’s reputation as a serious revenue-generating competitor to SpaceX for specific orbits.
Garuda Aerospace: Gov-Drone
🚁 The Integration: Garuda drones integrate with 90% of government client base.
🌐 The Reach: Expanding into agriculture, defence, and mapping sectors.
📈 The Goal: Building a full-stack drone ecosystem with data analytics.
The Wit: Drones are the new bureaucrats—they watch everything, file reports, and buzz overhead.
The Lens: The drone sector is maturing from “toys” to “enterprise infrastructure”. Deep integration with government workflows ensures long-term contracts and data stickiness, the holy grail for any deep-tech startup.
EnglishYaari: Funding Tongue
🗣️ The Fund: Bihar-born startup raises ₹1 Crore to teach communicative English.
🎓 The Origin: Founded by engineers from Muzaffarpur; aiming for ₹50 Cr ARR.
🌏 The Market: Targeting employability gap in Tier-2/3 India.
The Wit: An English-teaching startup from Bihar raising funds in Mumbai is the ultimate success story.
The Lens: Solving the specific “employability” problem for the Bharat demographic is a resilient model. It treats English not as a subject, but as a performance skill for job markets.
World Watch: Top Global
Ukraine: Christmas Darkness
💥 The Attack: Russia launches 650+ drones/missiles; power grids hit.
🕯️ The Impact: Rivne, Ternopil plunged into darkness before Christmas.
🕊️ The Irony: Attack comes amid reports of progress in peace talks.
The Wit: Putin’s idea of a Christmas card is a cruise missile—festive spirit is dead.
The Lens: Russia is weaponising winter again. By degrading the grid right before peace talks, Moscow wants Kyiv desperate and cold at the negotiating table to force concessions.
Japan: The Yen Tantrum
💴 The Warning: Finance Minister warns of intervention as Yen weakens.
🏦 The Paradox: Market disappointed by BOJ’s cautious rate hike tone.
📉 The Speculation: Yen slides towards 160/USD despite government rhetoric.
The Wit: The Yen is falling faster than a clumsy tourist on Mount Fuji.
The Lens: Japan is in a trap. It raises rates to save the Yen, but not fast enough. The specter of currency intervention looms, threatening global liquidity and market stability.
US: Epstein Dump
📂 The Release: DOJ releases 11,000 pages of Epstein files; many redacted.
🗣️ The Spin: Trump downplays importance; transparency advocates angered.
🗳️ The Timing: Released just ahead of holiday cycle to minimise fallout.
The Wit: 11,000 pages and we still know nothing—redactions are the government’s love language.
The Signal: The “Epstein Cloud” hangs over the US elite. While Trump brushes it off, the slow drip of documents ensures the scandal remains a dormant volcano in American politics.
China: The 15th Plan
📝 The Order: Premier Li Qiang orders drafting of 15th Five-Year Plan.
🎯 The Focus: “New quality productive forces” (tech/AI) and growth.
🏗️ The Shift: Moving from infrastructure-heavy to innovation-driven model.
The Wit: Another Five-Year Plan? It’s a corporate retreat but with more cement.
The Signal: Beijing is doubling down on tech self-reliance. The plan will likely formalise the decoupling from Western tech, pouring state capital into chips and AI to sanction-proof the economy.
Sign-Off: Question of the Day: If we can define a hill by its height to allow mining, can we define a pothole by its depth to demand a refund on road tax?