Indigenous Protesters Block COP30 Entrance
☕ India’s Morning Briefing: Sat, November 15
Hello, and welcome to the brief.
Good morning, friends.
While you were sleeping, the NDA didn’t just win Bihar; it cemented its grip on the Hindi heartland, and the first “jabs” for the West Bengal fight have already been thrown.
Welcome to the 156th edition of The India Brief
Do not miss the deep dive in the end.
1. The Main Event: Politics & National Security
🗳️ NDA Secures Landslide Win in Bihar
NDA sweeps Bihar; 202 of 243 seats
BJP emerges; single largest party
PM Modi credits; ‘Mahila & Youth’ formula
Mahagathbandhan collapses; Congress, Left perform poorly
Well, that was a walloping. The NDA didn’t just win Bihar; it repainted the map. The opposition’s ‘Jungle Raj’ warnings clearly lost to Modi’s ‘MY’ (Mahila-Youth) formula, which, conveniently, also stands for Modi-Yogi.
The Chessboard: This isn’t just a state win; it’s the opening move for West Bengal. By cementing dominance in the Hindi heartland, the BJP signals to Mamata Banerjee that the Ganga’s political currents now flow east, setting the board for 2029. 🔗
🧨 Blast Injures 8 Police in Srinagar
Accidental explosion; Nowgam police station, Srinagar
8 police personnel; injured late Friday night
Cause; mishandling seized explosives during sampling
Explosives; part of 360 kg cache from Faridabad case 🔗
💥 House of Red Fort Blast Accused Demolished
Security forces demolish; Dr. Umar Nabi’s house
Location; Pulwama, south Kashmir
Action; occurred overnight using explosives
Context; Nabi identified as driver in Nov 10 blast🔗
🗣️ Farmers’ Unions to Block Shambhu Border
Protest march planned; for Nov 15
By; Quami Insaf Morcha & farm unions
Demands; release of ‘Bandi Singhs’ (Sikh prisoners)
Also protesting; Electricity Amendment Bill 2025 🔗
✈️ IAF Training Aircraft Crashes Near Chennai
IAF Pilatus PC-7; trainer aircraft crashes
Location; near Chennai
Pilot; ejected safely
Rescued; by IAF helicopter
A good day and a terrible day for one IAF pilot. The terrible: their training plane crashed. The good: the ejection seat worked perfectly. 🔗
😷 Delhi AQI Almost ‘Severe’
Delhi-NCR air quality; remains almost “severe” - misses by 1 mark
Condition; “blanket of haze” grips region
Context; Delhi had three consecutive days of severe air
Response; SC seeks reports on stubble burning🔗
🌊 Karnataka Accuses Centre of Stalling Water Projects
Karnataka Dy CM; accuses Centre of stalling projects
Projects affected; Krishna and Mahadayi
Allegation; clearances withheld despite court orders
Accuses state BJP MPs; of “failing” to raise issue🔗
2. The Docket: Law, Courts & Governance
🔒 Centre Notifies Data Protection Rules
MeitY notifies; new data protection rules
Activates; Data Protection Board of India
Mandates; ‘verifiable parental consent’ for kids’ for data processing
Implements; controversial RTI amendment
After eight years, India’s data privacy law is finally... functional. Sort of. Big Tech now has to actually ask parents before tracking kids, a concept so novel it might just break the internet.
The Signal: The immediate effect is a compliance scramble for tech firms. The second-order effect? We forget all about it and so do the companies, until one lone PIL that gets bought out.🔗
⚖️ Karnataka HC Jails Editor for Defamation
Karnataka High Court; convicts editor T Gururaj
Sentence; 6 months imprisonment
Crime; defamatory articles against police officer
Motive; alleged ‘vengeance’ for prior arrest
A reminder that “publish and be damned” can sometimes end with... well, being damned. A police officer just won a defamation case against an editor, which is rarer than you’d think.
Follow the Currency: The editor was optimising for retribution, using his platform as a weapon. The court, by overturning an acquittal, is optimising for institutional credibility, signalling that the “power of the press” is not a shield for personal vendettas. 🔗
📋 Maharashtra Amends Orphan Quota Calculation
Maharashtra govt; issues new resolution
Changes; 1% orphan quota in govt jobs
Calculation; now on “vacant posts”; not “available posts”
Norms; eligibility rules also tightened
A small but critical change in bureaucratic maths. The government just altered how it calculates its 1% orphan quota, proving once again that the fine print is where policy truly lives or dies.🔗
3. The Bottom Line: Economy & Business
💸 India’s Forex Reserves Dip by $2.7 Billion
RBI data; forex reserves fall again
Total; now $687.73 billion
Decline; $2.7 billion in first week of Nov
Reason; drop in foreign assets & gold reserves
The national savings account just took another hit. The RBI is clearly spending its dollars, likely to keep the rupee from taking a nosedive while global markets are shaky.
Follow the Currency: The RBI is optimising for currency stability. It is selling its dollar reserves (the currency) to buy rupees, artificially propping up the rupee’s value to prevent import inflation and maintain market confidence. This dip is the price of stability. 🔗
🏭 Adani Group Pledges Rs. 63,000 crore for Assam Power
Adani Group; announces Rs. 63,000 crore investment
Location; northeastern state of Assam
Projects; $5.4B thermal plant; $1.5B renewable energy
Context; largest private investment in region
The Chessboard: This investment is pure geopolitics, dressed as business. By developing India’s sensitive northeastern region, Adani is aligning with the government’s “Act East” policy. This builds critical infrastructure, creates stability, and acts as an economic counterweight to China’s influence. 🔗
🤝 India & Canada Target Critical Minerals
India-Canada; ministerial meeting concludes
Agreement; bolster long-term supply chains
Focus; critical minerals & clean energy
Also expanding; aerospace & dual-use trade🔗
4. The Wider World
German Economy Stagnates, Lags Europe
Germany’s economy; facing stagnation
Projected growth; just 0.2% this year
Context; follows two years of recession
Reason; “traditional German export model” undermined
Europe’s “engine” is sputtering. Germany is officially the new sick man of Europe, stuck in a recession-stagnation loop while its entire export-heavy business model is questioned.
The Deeper Take: This is the 1990s post-reunification “German sickness” all over again. Germany’s model, built on cheap Russian gas and massive exports to China, is broken. It is repeating history, facing a painful structural crisis that requires deep, unpopular reforms, not just a cyclical recovery. 🔗
🛰️ Blue Origin Aces Mars Mission Launch & Landing
Blue Origin’s New Glenn; launches NASA mission
Payload; ESCAPADE spacecraft; bound for Mars
Milestone; first-stage booster; landed safely on ship
This was; first successful orbital booster recovery for company
Jeff Bezos’s space company finally did it. After years of watching SpaceX, Blue Origin successfully launched a massive rocket for NASA and landed the booster on a boat. The billionaire space race has a real competitor.
The Deeper Take: This is the “four-minute mile” of rocketry. For years, landing an orbital booster seemed impossible. SpaceX proved it was possible; Blue Origin has now proved it is repeatable. This moment signals the shift from a single company’s miracle to a genuine commercial capability. 🔗
Indigenous Protesters Block COP30 Entrance
~100 Indigenous protesters; block COP30 entrance
Group; Munduruku Ipereg Ayu Movement
Action; peaceful 90-minute standoff in Belem, Brazil
Demand; to meet Brazil’s President, end Amazon destruction
Conference president André Corrêa do Lago, a veteran Brazilian diplomat, met with the group
The people who actually live in the Amazon just blocked the entrance to the conference about the Amazon. A truly perfect, peaceful “you’re not listening” protest.
Follow the Currency: The protesters are optimising for leverage. They know the COP30 presidency’s worst nightmare is bad press. By creating a peaceful, highly visual blockade, they forced the conference president to personally meet them, gaining more direct access to power than weeks of formal lobbying. 🔗
US & Russia Float Rival UN Plans for Gaza
Russia; proposes rival UN resolution
US plan; calls for “Int’l Stabilization Force” (ISF)
Russian plan; only “examining options” for a force
Context; China, Arab nations also oppose US draft
The UN Security Council is doing what it does best: disagreeing. The US wants a peacekeeping force in Gaza; Russia and China have hit “delete” on that proposal. In the end, we know no resolution will be passed; in classic UNSC manner. 🔗
5. The Good Bit: Uplifting News
🥇 India Stuns Korea for Historic Archery Gold
Indian men’s recurve team; wins gold
Opponent; defeated powerhouse South Korea 5-4
Event; Asian Archery Championships
Significance; first gold in this event in 18 years🔗
💸 IIT Grads’ AI Startup Raises $61 Million
Founders; two IIT Kharagpur graduates
Startup; ‘Giga’, a voice AI company
Raised; $61 million from Silicon Valley VCs
Founders; rejected $525k job, Stanford PhD
Two IIT grads turned down a combined lottery win’s worth of jobs and a Stanford PhD to build their own AI company. Two years later, it’s valued at $61 million. A truly epic “I told you so.”
Follow the Currency: The founders were optimising for equity, not salary. They understood that the ‘currency’ of generational wealth isn’t a $500k/year job, but owning a piece of a company in a high-growth sector. 🔗
💨 India’s CO2 Emission Growth Slows in 2025
Report; from Global Carbon Project
Finding; India’s CO2 growth to slow to 1.4%
Context; down from 4% growth in 2024
Global; emissions to rise 1.1%
Some genuinely good news for the planet. India is still growing, but its carbon emission growth has slowed way down. We’re still polluting, just more slowly than before.
And Then What?: This data is a critical win, but the second-order effect is a political one. India will now use this report at COP meetings as concrete proof that its “green growth” model is working, giving it immense leverage to demand more from developed nations. 🔗
6. The Deep Dive
The Gaza Endgame, A Tale of Two (Blocked) Plans
Today at the UN, the great-power chess game is on full display, and the board is the future of Gaza. The US and Russia have tabled two completely rival resolutions, and critically analysing them reveals less about a path to peace and more about the new, fractured world order.
Let’s use the The Chessboard lens.
Plan 1: The US “Muscular” Approach The US draft, part of a 20-point proposal, is direct. It calls for the explicit implementation of an “International Stabilization Force” (ISF) to police Gaza for at least two years. The real centrepiece, however, is the creation of a “Board of Peace.” This body is envisioned as a “transitional governance administration”—in plain English, a US-led government of Palestinian and international “experts” that would run the enclave.
For Gaza: This means immediate, externally-enforced stability and humanitarian aid, but at the cost of sovereignty. It’s a receivership, not a liberation.
For Israel: This is the ideal outcome: security is outsourced to an international (and US-led) force, removing the need for a costly long-term occupation. Afghanistan dejva vu anyone?
For the Region: It reasserts American dominance in the Middle East, a status quo its allies (like the UAE and Egypt) might publicly support.
Plan 2: The Russian “Spoiler” Draught The Russian counter-resolution is a masterclass in strategic obstruction. It doesn’t call for implementing a force; it vaguely suggests “examining the options“ for one. Crucially, it completely deletes any mention of the US-led “Board of Peace”.
For Gaza: This plan offers... nothing. It is a diplomatic tool, not a reconstruction plan. It provides no mechanism for governance, security, or aid.
For Israel: This plan is a failure, as it ensures a continued power vacuum and UN stalemate.
For the Region: This is where it gets interesting. Russia isn’t acting alone. China and several Arab nations, including Algeria, also oppose the US draft. They specifically want the “Board of Peace” removed.
The Critical Analysis This isn’t a choice between two viable futures. It’s a choice between a US-led protectorate and a power-vacuum stalemate. The US plan is built on the unipolar assumption that it can still unilaterally design a region’s government. The Russian-Chinese plan is a purely multipolar reaction, designed not to solve the problem, but to block the US solution.
Both Russia and China hold veto power. They will kill the US plan. The US will kill their plan. The tragic result is that while the great powers confirm their status in this new world, the people of Gaza are left with no viable, internationally-backed future at all.
Q: The US wants a US-led “Board of Peace” to govern Gaza; Russia and China want to block it, offering no clear alternative. Is an externally-imposed stability force the only path forward, or is it just a new form of occupation dressed in diplomatic language?
Reply with your thoughts.
Stay sharp,
Aditya S.
Editor, The India Brief
The formate here is excellent for busy readers who want comprehensive coverage without getting lost in details. The analys of Bihar's results connecting it to future West Bengal strategy is sharp. Also appreciate how you broke down the Gaza endgame with actual geopolitcal implications rather than just recounting events.